In a highly complex world, where we can only expect complexity to increase, it is dangerous to centralize decision-making, especially if these decisions are made by folks whose expertise is mostly about being elected… rather than governing.
I am disappointed by the result of the US election this week. I did not want Trump to be back after his poor first term, his disastrous handling of the 2020 election, and his 2024 campaign. I was also wrong to expect that most Americans would not choose him again. Yet, they did.
Trump has been relatively popular in the crypto/blockchain space, so I have observed some of his proponents for the last year, and one thing became clear to me: many of these folks have been single-issue voters. They heard Trump offer a simple message: “I love Bitcoin, I love crypto,” and it looks like nothing else Trump has done or could say would be able to change their minds. On the other side, Democrats have been, at the very least, very ambiguous. Some, like Ritchie Torres, have been strong advocates, while others have raised an anti-crypto army. I could find only a single mention related to crypto from Kamala Harris: “Kamala Harris has spoken publicly about crypto for the first time, pledging support for the industry while stressing consumer protections.”
In other words, on the Trump side, you have a simple message (some might say simplistic), and on the Harris, something more nuanced (some might say ambiguous). This pattern applies to pretty much any of the topics of the campaigns: Trump says “0 immigration and mass deportation”, and Harris says we need “border security”. On foreign policy, Trump will end the Russian war on Ukraine “on day 1” and give a blank check to Israel. Harris has vowed to keep helping Ukraine, as well as continue fostering negotiations between Israel and Hamas/Hezbollah terrorists. On trade, Trump says he will add tariffs on everything to reclaim jobs; Harris says she supports targeted tariffs on things such as clean energy components… etc.
I believe crypto is a complicated topic because it looks like traditional finance in some aspects, but it also looks like technology in others. The core crypto technology enables a complete reshuffling of both the financial and tech worlds… but I also know how many scammers, grifters, and speculators are using it for nefarious and zero-sum gains. Crypto is complex, and a simplistic answer (accept everything or ban everything) is doomed to fail, but a simple answer is the most audible, especially if you don’t have time to learn and understand it.
Just like crypto is complex, environmental challenges, foreign policy or, international trade are complex. I don’t know what is best in any of these areas (including crypto or tech!), but I know that the answers and policies must be nuanced and measured, and an equilibrium must be found between competing goals.
In retrospect, I should have understood that a simple message would convince confused and angry voters more. For better or worse, very few people (myself included) are educated enough on any topic, and the simple message, especially when voiced with confidence, can be reassuring.
We have a governance issue: the “best” candidates (as in, most likely to be elected) are offering the most straightforward message… but the best presidents (as in, most likely to solve problems) are the ones who find nuance and embrace the complexity of our modern world.
I believe this won’t get better until we start “decentralizing” governments where instead of electing a single president who is expected to decide many unrelated topics, we start thinking about having multiple ways to govern different topics, some for which we choose representatives (such as foreign policy), some for which we have more direct governance (like individual rights), some for which we can change direction often, some for which we need to “stick” to a policy for longer than 2 years… etc. Democracy is 5000 years old, and many of its structures are, at best, 300 years old. They were designed when most people did not read or write, when it took days for information to travel from one side of the county to the other, and at a time when pretty much all aspects of life hadn’t changed for centuries. We now have the technology to enable better governance, it’s time to put it to use!